Swansea EFL Cup Preview

If you've ever encountered a swan, you know they bring a chaos that belies their calming minimalist white attire. Turn your back while taking a leisurely evening stroll by the water's edge and you might just find a white ball of fury charging you down. You see, swans don't care about how much money you spent, or what your hopes & dreams for the future are. Swan's just want you to leave their patch alone so they can, well, swan about, I guess!

I'm hoping that the above paragraph is a pointless metaphor and not something that in anyway relates to Forest's visit to Wales in the EFL cup. I'm hoping we don't fancy a leisurely stroll by the River Tawe and that it's Forest and our new signings that provide the charging fury.

Swansea away on a wet & cold Wednesday night wouldn't be an appetising game during the best of runs. I still have nightmarish flashbacks to our Exeter game last season as they made the game a tough stodgy affair that seemed to go on forever. I was in the midst of a battle with flu and desperate to go to bed and the game just kept on going.

It was a game that tested the mentality of our backup players and youngsters.  Not in terms of their talent or potential, but in terms of their readiness for that kind of battling game and being able to affect the game in difficult conditions. Our two wing backs just didn't seem to fancy it, our Brazilian goalkeeper made a Forest career ending mistake.

That Exeter game came on the back of a 7-0 win over Brighton don't forget! We weren't a team struggling for form and confidence and yet the result against Exeter (before Penalties) sparked our worst run of last season as we went five games before picking up our next win in normal time. It seemed to knock the stuffing out of us even though we got through it.

I also think back to our FA Cup Quarter Final game against Sheffield United in 2014 under Billy Davies. A man with a bit of swan like mentality to him. Going into that game Forest were on a 13-game unbeaten run with 4 wins out of 5. Jamie Patterson was on fire and Forest went 1-0 up in the first half thanks to his goal. Then it all unravelled. When I say 'all' I really mean all. Sheffield United came back to win the game 3-1 with two goals in 90+ minutes. Forest only won two of their remaining 15 games that season. The wheels came of the Billy Bus with that 5-0 defeat to Derby but it seemed to be that FA Cup game that broke everything.

I bring all these bad memories up in order to bring my expectations down, but also to say that these kinds of cup games can make or break a teams momentum. Throw into that mix a new manager who wasn't the first choice of many fans, and an entirely new XI of players who will want game time and there's actually a ton of context which may or may not ooze out of every social media orifice after the game depending on the result, but also as per the Exeter game, the performance as well.

I guess this time it's different though. We aren't a team flying high like an Eagle (not a Palace reference). We aren't at risk of destabilising an unbeaten run due to a cup humbling. Instead we are a bit more Swan like. You never actually see Swan's flying high do you, they tend to just be strutting around annoying people in an aggresive manner. We strutted against Brentford, then since then it's been all wingspan no trousers. Time to actually get this season off the ground again.

This game will be a huge test for our mentality if we don't get off to a good start. No Miguel like mistakes from his body double John Victor can be allowed. The likes of Douglas Luiz, our Brazil No 9 Igor Jesus, and record signing Omari Hutchinson didn't join Forest with the desire to face Swansea on a Wednesday night with an 80% chance of rain and a 100% chance of expectations being high. However, this seems to be their first proper chance to show real world ability to impact games. As usually happens McAtee has become better because MGW has dipped and Bakwa is the saviour after a 10 minute appearance etc. They might be, but now's the chance to prove it with goals, assists, tackles and all the stuff that wins games over and above a nice looking touch on the ball.

This game will suit a typical Big Ange team. Swansea might try and play us at our own game a little. They like to have the ball themselves. If Ange has managed to get some of his philosophy across to these players during this week then they should take the game to Swansea and make it a comfortable affair. If Ange has shown one particular consistency in his record, it's that he usually manages to get results when he's in charge of strong teams against lesser favoured teams. It's the punching up that he's struggled more with, at least in his time in the Premier League and Champions League.

Either way it seems like a test of mentality over ability. We've spent £200m on players this summer, of whom only Dan Ndoye has made a meaningful contribution so far. We shouldn't be worried about Swansea. Then again we thought that about Exeter.

The team selection for this game is not easy for Ange to juggle. He has to consider fitness and injuries. He has to balance the desire to imprint his style into our best XI as well as giving gametime to the squad players who need match sharpness. Picking an entirely new XI ahead of a tough Burnley game would be as much of a risk as the potential for over-playing his preffered XI. He also needs to pick players who will grab hold of the game and not just let it slip past in the pursuit of avoiding injury or for fear of making a mistake. We need to see a bit of fight and desire, a bit of that swan-like aggression on the pitch, but also a dollop of swan-like confidence. We need to show that we are as good now as we were just 6 months ago. I've gone all Roy Keane again!

Who'd be a manager, eh? I hope all my ponderings above are out the window after 20 minutes when we've taken the lead and we see ourselves to a nice comfy scoreline.

Swansea City are sitting in 7th place in the Championship on the back of 2 wins, a pair of draws & one defeat which was to the team currently sat top of the league.

Their form at the end of last season should give the Championship a bit of notice they might fancy a swan-like fight for the playoffs this season. Swansea ended the season with only 1 defeat in 8 games and managed 4 wins in a row along the way. That means it's 2 defeats in 13 games, not bad! Including a win over Sunderland, albeit a very different looking side to the one Forest are soon to face in the Premier League.

Thats the boring real world numbers out the way, what about the underlying ones?

(All the % numbers below are rankings as percentile when compared across teams in leagues outside the BIG 4 leagues and also compared to players across the same.)

Swansea tend to get their wins by a single goal. Their xG ranks in the bottom 10% of teams outside the non big4 leagues. However their defence this season so far ranks in the top 2%.

So it'll be a good bit of practice to see how Ange ball breaks down a defensively solid team. Good practice for Burnley at the weekend. Swansea don't sit particularly deep though to earn their defensive record and they like to get on the ball scoring highly for their possession, including a penchent for building out from the back.

Their GK has had a good season so far, and they have been very clinical at the other end of the pitch as well. Remind you of anyone?

Ultimately though their lack of creativity from open play or set pieces should mean Forest's defence can handle them and it's more a question of Forest upping their attacking performance this season.

Key Players?

You've got to start with the Brazilian Ronald surely? Did he forget the O when filling out paperwork? These single name Brazilians, you've gotta love em'! Ronald has had a very clinical start to the season. Their own Championship version of Igor Jesus perhaps. We might see shirt swapping galore.

Swansea have 7 players that rank in the top 10% against my role profiles so far this season compared to the non-big4 leagues. This is in a large part down to such a small sample size, but shows they've got some specialists in their team. They have a top defensive Stopper in Cabango (great name to say out loud), a top midfield Destroyer in Fulton (based on limited minutes) and a top Target Man in Vipotnik. All aided by the creative force of Inoussa.

This isn't gonna be a walk in the park feeding the birds like an old codger mate!

Zeidane Inoussa joins Ronald in having a name that's almost like a football legend's but not quite!

While I'm not going to compare him to the great French heatbutting master, Inoussa is the creative force in the Swansea team. Ranking in amongst the top forwards for his ball carrying, playmaking and chance creation this season. Also not afriad of a duel or a bit ball winning. Certainly one to keep quiet on our right side of the pitch, where we might be experimenting defensively.

The comparison charts below show how Swansea's Forwards compare with Forest's - albeit in a different standard of league of course.

Inoussa is up at the top for chance creation while all of Forest's regular forwards are in the bottom 40% this season so far. Zan Vipotnik is currently ranking at 100% for his finishing ability this season as their target man. Again due to the limited games played, but he will be in confident form no doubt.

Dan Ndoye might be due a rest for this one, but has been Forest's standout ball carrying & progressive passing player in the front line so far. Still Inoussa is out-ranking him so far this season. 

Eom Ji-sung completes the trio of players that sound a but like more famous players (Park Ji-sung with his extra lung of course). A very strong ball carrier but he hasn't managed to convert that into chances so far.

If there's a weakness to the Swansea team it might be in their midfield. Although strong cameo's from Stamenic & Fulton suggest they might have room to improve. Gonçalo Franco is thier Portugese midfield dynamo and ball winner. Ethan Galbraith is an ex Man-U academy player who provides their playmaking ability. Malick Yalcouyé is the all round midfielder, trying to imitate Elliot Anderson who is yet again standing out in the numbers.

In defence Cameron Burgess has brought a no-nonsense style over from Ipswich and will be a familiar face to Ange Postecoglu due to links with the Australian national team I'd assume. Cabango is the more progressive of the centre backs who's been an elite dueller this season but has also provided plenty of progressive passing for Swansea.