BEST & WORST FINISHES TO A SEASON

Should you be worried that all the other teams in the race for 5th place are going to win all their remaining games?

In the Premier League's 20-team season history, 580 teams have participated, and only 24 have won all their final four games. That's a 4% occurrence. Of those 24 teams, only eleven of them finished the season outside the top 2. Of those 24 teams, only 7 of them went into the final four games with less than 67 points. I.e. they were already teams well ahead of where the current teams hunting down 5th place currently are.

The main exception to the rule was West Ham in 2006-07  who went from relegation form with 29 points to finish on 41 points. Of the teams in a similar position to this seasons chasing pack, there have only been three teams with between 57 and 63 points at this stage that went on to win all their final 4 games. They all finished 3rd, Liverpool in 00-01 and 20-21 and Chelsea in 12-13.

So in summary, it doesn't happen often, and when it does happen, the teams tend to have already been a top 3 side ending the season well. Not a 6th or 7th placed side suddenly finding title-winning form!

Endings for a team like Forest?

If Forest beat Brentford this week they would be on 63 points from 34 games. No team has finished below 5th with that points tally at that stage, averaging 70 points total.

If Forest draw with Brentford they would have 61 points from 34 games. No team has finished below 5th with that points tally at that stage, averaging 67 points total.

If Forest lose to Brentford they would have 60 points from 34 games. In this instance, the range of finishes does go down to 7th place on one occasion, 6th place on two occasions. The average though is still a 4th/5th place finish with 66 points.

Teams From The Past

Here are all the teams from the 20-team Premier League seasons that have the same number of points as Forest at this stage of the season. Showing how many more points they collected and what position they finished in.

Forecast Premier League Table(s)

The forecast table shows the total projeted points for each team based on their points per match (PPM) so far this season. I have chosen to round up the numbers.

The forecast form table uses the teams form over the last 12-games to project the final points total. The formula is: Current Points + (12 Game PPM * Remaining Games)

The Avg Points is a 10-year average for that position to show how this table would stack up to a typical season.

Form Table & Fixtures

Form for the teams chasing down a 5th place finish & remaining fixtures to see which teams can have the biggest say.

Teams coded in red are difficult opponents due to their good home/away form. Teams in orange are average, and teams in green are opponents in poor form - i.e. easier games.

If the fixture is coded in red it means the team lost to that opponent in the previous fixture. Oranage means it was a draw last time and green means that team won the fixture.

The higher the bar, the more difficult the game is based on the opponents recent form home or away.

The European Dream Tracker

This chart plots Forest's point tally in green. The average points total of 5th place over the last 10 seasons is in yellow. The average points total for the lowest level European Qualification over the last 10 seasons is in red.

The dashed lines, show the projected points total required for 5th (yellow) and 7th (red) in this current season, based on PPM so far.

The table in the corner shows what's needed for each team in the race to reach the forecast 5th-place points total.

Hopefully I'm not tempting fate, just trying to look at realistic scenarios and work out who's still in the mix!

READ MY PREVIOUS DEEP DIVE INTO THE RACE FOR THE TOP 5