When Man U are bottom half, we can all have a laugh, that's Amorim,

When Man U play like shite, it will be a good night, that's Amorim

Tuesday night under the City Ground lights! Nuno with a 100% record against Man Utd for Forest. The only fly in the ointment might just be the absence of Chris Wood and the some heavy legs from our FA Cup exploits by the sea. 

Head To Head v The Other Premier League Teams

Man Utd have a better record than Forest against only two teams so far this season. Man City & Fulham. In the chart below, the green bars indicate where Forest have the better results, red bars where Man Utd have the better results. No bar means both teams have the same results so far.

Man Utd's record against the top six sides is as good as Forest's, but when it comes to the lower middle half, this is where Forest have picked up their healthy points tally so far this season.

Manchester United's Form

On paper, across all competition, Man Utd are unbeaten in 7 games and won 8 of their last 15 games, a 53% win rate! They've also only lost 3 in 15. Sounds impressive, but Forest have only lost 3 in 19 by comparison.

However Man Utd's current league form (1.4 PPM) is only as good as Forest's worst form for any six-game spell this season! Since Amorim replaced Ten Haag, Man Utd's form has for long spells been less than 1 PPM, which is relegation form. So yes they have improved of late, but they've gone from crap to less crap.

Even if we accept the premise of 1.4 PPM being 'good' form, a quick look into their fixtures shows three of their recent wins have been against the bottom three sides. So any uplift in form has to be offset by the fact they have been facing lower ranked teams as demonstrated in the two tables below.

The Underlying Numbers

The thing is, even though Man Utd's form has marginally improved, the underlying numbers don't support the idea they have been putting in notably improved performances. The numbers suggest they have been more clinical, but have still struggled to create good chances, and have been giving away lots of good chances that opposition teams haven't taken.

Expected Goal Difference

Expected goal difference can be a good indicator of underlying form. If there is a disparity between a team's actual form and the expected goals for & against, then over time you would anticipate things levelling out.

We can compare the actual form & the expected goal difference on the chart below. Form is plotted left to right and expected goal difference (xGD) is plotted bottom to top.

Teams close to the average line are performing to the league average. Teams above the line should probably be picking up more points based on their performances. Teams below the line are the fortunate one's, that have perhaps picked up some points their performances have merited. You can see that Man Utd sit a fair way below the line.

Man Utd's average xGD over the last six games has been negative -0.75, but their form has been around 1.3-1.4 PPM. The blue line shows the numbers you would expect based on the xGD numbers for Man Utd. It suggests their form should be 0.9 PPM based on the performances. You might remember from the first form chart 0.9 PPM has been the average form under Amorim. So in summary while the results have improved, the performances have remained similar in terms of chances created and conceded.

The right hand table below shows that Man Utd are currently outperforming their expected goal difference more than any other team in the last 8 games.

Man Utd's Defensive Numbers

My interpretation of the underlying defensive numbers is that Man Utd have not really improved their defensive resolve despite conceding less goals. It's more that opposition teams have missed their opportunities. Remember that Man Utd have been playing bottom three sides who lack the quality in front of goal that a team like Forest has. Even against Arsenal they have played a team missing a striker.

Teams have been creating more shots on target against Man Utd ever since Amorim became manager and the trend is continuing upwards. The one area they have improved is reducing the number of errors they are making that lead to shots for the opposition.

Goalkeeping Collapse

We all remember those Onana howlers at Old Trafford. Well you will be pleased to know he hasn't really improved his form since then. His save rate before Amorim came in was better than Matz Sels at that time, but clearly him and Amorim aren't getting along too well, because his form on the stats has dropped off a cliff in this second half of the season. Only in the last few games has it turned around slightly.

Attacking Numbers

Again I think Man Utd's attacking improvement of late isn't backed up by the data. They have been taking more of their chances that is for sure. Shot conversion is up and they are outperforming their xG. However the number of shots they are having hasn't increased and the quality of the chances they are creating hasn't increased. Taking chances is all that matters, we know that from Forest's style, but there is more chance of a team going through a dry spell if they aren't creating a few more good quality chances. Man Utd haven't turned the corner into being a dominant team in the final third of the pitch so far.

Possession

Man Utd are having less possession lately, across the last six games they are below 50% possession. However they are starting to have a bigger share of the ball in the final third of the pitch. This likley means they are spending less time dilly-dallying on the ball in their own half, instead getting the ball forward quicker. I wonder who they could have taken that idea from?

Form Tables For Last 8 Games

Here is a massive dump of form tables for the last 8 Premier League teams, there are a few notable things we can identify. Feel free to comment & share the tables.

• Forest sit top of goals scored chart, shot conversion chart & G-xG chart. A lot hinges on the Brighton result, but also plenty of goals at Newcastle & Ipswich.

• Forest have slipped to 16th place in terms of goals conceded per game, but they are still in 3th place for clean sheet % on recent form. So when we concede we do it all in one game, which is smart, I guess.

• Man Utd have been giving teams the best quality chances to score against them in the league, those teams haven't taken their chances.

• Forest sit bottom of the league for set piece defending over the last eight games, and Man Utd have developed a bit more of a set-piece threat lately.

Forest have also been the best side for converting their chances compared to expected goals.

Man Utd sit 4th in the table for opponents leaving chances on the table.

Over the last 8 games, Forest have had around 2 shots less than their opponents, but rank in the top 7 for the quality of chances being created. Man Utd rank down in 18th place for chance quality.

Forest have the best shot conversion rate of late with 17% of shots turning into goals.

Man Utd are giving opposition teams the best quality of chances over recent games, and allow on average 4 shots on target per game.

The goalkeepers for both sides are in a bit of a lull currently (in the league)

Forest a much more direct team than Man Utd, but Man Utd are now mid-table for their directness. They used to be right down the bottom.

Forest take 12 touches to fashion a shot. Man Utd take 14 touches. Forest take half as many passes per expected assist they create. Palace a long way in front for how well they are converting possession into chances.

Forest have moved down the defensive action charts a bit lately, but still do more defending that their opponents. Forest still rank highly for last ditch deep defending, but not as high as they have in the past.

As we'd expect Forest don't tend to engage teams high up the pitch. An interesting one in the Forest are currently the worst team for winning defensive ground duels. Man Utd currenlty the best team at that.

Forest in the top four for clean sheets as per usual. As important is our ability to spread out the goals to make sure teams don't leave with a clean sheet themselves where we rank in the top six.

Neither of the two sides commit a lot of fouls.

Man Utd rank in the top five for their dead ball threat at the moment, ahead of Forest. Defensively Forest have been the team that allows the most chances from set plays lately.

Man Utd have been winning more aerial duels of late which might link to the set pieces numbers.

Forest face a different test from the last game against Brighton, a team with lots of players willing to take defenders on. Man Utd sitting bottom of the league for dribble success, and attempted dribbles.

Neither team likes to carry the ball into the penalty area, but Man Utd have struggled to find ways to pass the ball into the box when in the final third. Which explains why they have struggled for goals.

The Danger Men

No surprises that Man Utd don't have anyone close to Chris Wood for shot conversion. Hojlund averages less than 2 shots per game, and only manages to convert 20% of those shots.

MGW the most effective player for converting touches in the final third into chances for Forest. Fernandes does create more chances per 90, but has more touches from which to do that. Lucky for us Diallo is out, because he looks like a top impact talent, especially when compared to Garnacho's lack of impact.