SUMMARY

• 65 points needed for 5th place / could maybe get away with 64 + GD

• This isn't a strange season in terms of the race for 5th place

• Bournemouth, Fulham and Villa are too far adrift

• Forest usually end the season well and better than the other sides involved

• Brentford, Everton & Man Utd play the most games against the sides involved, which means we might have to hope they do well

A 4-2 win for Forest in Gameweek 29 keeps Forest in 3rd with a 5-point gap to 4th place.

The gap to 5th place is 6 points, but if Newcastle win their game in hand that would shrink to a 5-point gap.

HOW MANY POINTS ARE NEEDED TO FINISH 5TH

Nobody knows do they, stop looking for certainty in football, it doesn't exist. However we can project ahead how the current form for the season so far would look after 38 games......

The projected league table below shows Newcastle finishing in 5th place with 64 points, 1 point ahead of 6th place Man City.

The target for 5th place therefore needs to be 65 points after gameweek 29

64 points might be enough, but can you really imagine missing out of Champions League football based on goal difference? Head's would be lost.

WHAT ABOUT RECENT FORM?

We need to double check how teams recent form might impact the situation. Teams like Palace show that whole season form might just be hiding a recent upsurge that might change the outlook.

The table below shows the same forecast for the points totals and league positions, but this time is based on a projection that the last 12-games form will continue for the remaining nine games of the season. It does change things for some teams, but it doesn't change anything for Forest's ambitions.

Forest are still projected to finish on 71 points, and 5th place is still projected to need at least 64 points + GD or 65 points to be safe.

The big change is that Chelsea drop out of the top 5 and Man City and Brighton would need to fight it out on goal difference. I haven't done a form projection on the goal difference, I've used the season average. If this plays out Brighton will need to rely on goal difference to qualify for the Champions League, and guess who went and put 7 goals past them to ruin their chances on that front?

Noteable that Crystal Palace are just shy of a European spot in this table as well.

Overall though, we can say that teams recent form doesn't change the situation for Forest at the moment.

THE HISTORY OF A 5TH PLACE FINISH IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE

Finishing in 5th place really means finishing a point better off than 6th place.

The chart below shows what that total number of points would have been throughout the history of the 20-team Premier League seasons to finish 1 points above the 6th place team.

The red line on the chart is the rolling 10-year average which shows how since 04/05 season the average has climbed from 60-points to a peak of 65-points in 20/21 but has started to drop slightly. The average points needed over the last 10 seasons to finish 1-point better than 6th has been 64-points. We can therefore take a bit of confidence this is an average season, there doesn't seem to be a suprise high points total.

IS THIS SEASON A STRANGE LEAGUE TABLE?

In some ways yes it is, but in terms of the race for 5th position it doesn't seem to be much different than usual. Man City are projected to finish in 6th place with 63-points which is exactly the average number of points for a typical 6th place team, therefore there isn't any effect on 5th place.

The strange part about this season is the overall poor performance of teams in 2nd to 5th place compared to the recent average. Arsenal for example are projected to finish 7-points worse than a typical 2nd place team. That slack has been scooped up by the teams between 9th and 12th who are overachiving against the average.

IS THERE ANY WAY TO PREDICT IF ITS A NORMAL SEASON OR NOT?

There aren't many strong correlations between points totals and patterns or predictions in the final league table. If there were the bookies would be in trouble. The beauty of football is that a couple of strange results or a run of form can have dramatic effect on the league table.

One area that correlates a little with how many points are needed to finish fifth is what the gap is between the top & bottom half teams that season. It seems that the wider the gap, the more points you will need to finish in 5th place. It makes sense of course becuase more points from the bottom half are going into the totals of those teams in the top half. 

On average the top ten teams combined collect 260 more points than the bottom ten teams each season. The chart below shows how this gap is growing on average over time and the 10-year average gap is now 287 points whereas it started out only around 220 points. We know the Premier League has been becoming less DEI, more MCI (not sure if that works?)

The chart below shows how the points total needed for 5th place relates to the gap between the top & bottom half teams.

The points gap between top & bottom is plotted left to right. You can see the 13/14 season had the widest gap of 320 points between the two halfs of the table. At the other end the 10/11 season has the smallest gap of under 190 points.

 The vertical axes is the number of points that were needed in those seasons to finish in 5th place. You can see there is a vague pattern as the points gap is higher, so is the total required for 5th place.

The red line shows the average relationship between the two numbers. A perfect correlation would be a red line at 45 degrees from one corner to the other. A strong correlation would have an R2 number of 1.0, the further away that number is from 1.0 the less the correlation. In this case the number is 0.47, so it's around a 50% correlation, or once every other time it does correlate. This would be low is we were talking about some kind of scentific test, but it's actually not a bad correlation for a sport as random as football I think.

The key take-away from the chart is that the 24/25 season is not an outlier, it sits right on the trend line for being an average sort of season.

By comparsison with that 13/14 season, you can see the points total for 5th was 70 points due to the higher gap between the top & bottom halves of the league. The reverse example being in the 10-11 season where only 59 points were needed to finish 5th when the gap was at it's smallest.

Another reason to support the points target being 65 points / 11 more points for Forest.

WHICH TEAMS ARE REALLY IN THE BATTLE?

The long list is Bournemouth, Villa, Fulham, Brighton, Newcastle, Man City, Chelsea, Forest and Arsenal. However I think the numbers below show we can rule out four of those teams pretty easily.

The reality is that the fight is between Forest, Chelsea, City, Newcastle & Brighton. Five teams battling for three places. I appreciate Bournemouth love to bite us on the backside when writing them off, but fair play if they catch this group now.

The table below shows how many points each team would need to reach the 65 point target. It also then shows what kind of change in their form as a percetnage would be needed over the last nine games to reach that target.

WHY BOURNEMOUTH ARE OUT

Bournemouth would need to pick up 21 points from 9 games, which would be a PPM of 2.33 or a win rate of 78%. In Premier League history only four teams in a similar position have done something similar from a list of 165 sides. Four out of 165 suggests there is a 2.4% chance of Bournemouth hitting the form they need to reach 65 points.

The list of 165 teams includes all sides that had managed at least 1.5 points per match (PPM) in their first 29 games. I.e. teams that had been in similar form. The four sides in that list that managed to improve their form by more than 50% were:

• Leeds in 00/01 - 76% improvement to 2.67PPM

• Arsenal in 12/13 - 68% improvement to 2.78 PPM

• Liverpool in 20/21 - 61% improvement to 2.56 PPM

• Liverpool in 05/06 - 58% improvement to 3.00 PPM (won all their last nine games)

Bournemouth need to win 7 out of their last 9 to be in with a shout. Bournemouth need to be in title winning form over the last nine games to stand a chance.

WHY FULHAM AND VILLA ARE OUT

Fulham & Villa face an similarly difficult challenge needing to find a 43% improvement in their form over the last nine games. Only 6 teams from 165 have done something similar in the Premier League which suggests a 4% chance.

Again both these sides need to win at least 7 out of 9 games or by winning six and drawing two other games. They would need to pick up points at twice the rate Forest do to catch us.

Fulham & Villa would need to be in the form of a typical 2nd place team from now to the end of the season to give themselves a chance of a 5th place finish. Seems unlikely.

WHAT ABOUT FOREST?

Forest need to pick up 1.22 PPM over the final nine games of the season, a win rate of 41% which equates to 4 wins or 3 wins and 2 draws.

Bournemouth, Fulham & Villa need to be almost twice as good as Forest over these last nine games to catch us. The others would all still need to win 20% more games than Forest to push us out the to 5.

Forest just need to be as good as a typical 12th place Premier League team over these last nine games to reach the 65 point mark.

THE BIGGEST COLLAPSES IN PREMIER LEAGUE HISTORY

Forest's form would need to drop by more 34% over the last nine games to be at risk of not finishing 5th. Again if we look at the list of past teams that have similar form at this stage of the season, there have been 28 teams from 165 that had such a collapse or 17%.

• Leicester in 00/01 went from 1.55 PPM to just 0.33 PPM picking up 3 points from a possible 27.

• Wolves in 21-22 who dropped off by 65% from 1.62 PPM down to 0.56 PPM picking up 5 points from 27. Don't worry that wasn't a Nuno Wolves side, it was Bruno Large's Wolves.

• The most recent big drop-off was West Ham last season who picked up only 8 points from 27 a 41% drop.

To give more hope that a dip isn't a disaster, last season Aston Villa finished in 4th place despite their 31% drop in form from 1.93 PPM in the first 29 games down to 1.33 PPM in the last 9 games. They picked up 12 points from 27 available. If Forest picked up 12 points now it would leave us on 66 and should comfortably be in the top 5.

So it's perfectly possible that Forest can lose a little bit of form & still qualify for the Champions League. We can even lose the majority of our remaining games (5/9) provided we win the other 4. No meltdowns are required based on a couple of bad results.

The average change in form for all the 165 teams on that list was a -6% drop in form. So it seems that most teams that start the season well have a slight dip in form during the final run-in. A 6% drop in form for Forest would give us 15-16 points, so a total of 69 to 70 points and probably 4th spot, but comfortably 5th as it stands.

FORESTS BIGGEST COLLAPSE?

The biggest collapse in form in Forest's Premier League seasons was in the 1996-97 season. The season where Frank Clark left and a caretaker setup was in place with Stuart Pearce & Dave Bassett. In that season Forest's form dropped off by 31% over the final nine games. There have been plenty worse collapses than that in the Prem, and a 31% drop would still be enough to get us over the 65 point mark.

In Forest's four other Premier League seasons we've actually got better in the final nine games. On average we've improved by 21% across all our Premier League seasons. In the 98/99 season we had a 61% uplift in form under Big Ron taking 10 points from 27 available. Shows how bad we had been before that I guess.

In the last two seasons, while battling relegation, our form in the last nine games improved by 31% and 42% respectively. In Forest's last two seasons we collected 1.22 PPM or 11 points from the final nine games. You might recall from the earlier table, how many points do Forest need to reach the crucial 65 point mark, that's right 11 points! So even if we finish this season like we did the last season, 5th spot should be ours.

Here's the average change in form for the clubs involved in the race, based on their whole Premier League history to see who usually finishes stongest:

• Forest +21%

• Fulham +20%

• City +7%

• Newcastle +3%

• Bournemouth +2%

• Villa -2%

• Chelsea -2%

• Brighton -7%

More evidence it's Forest who usually finish the season strong, and that it's a big ask for some of these teams to find a + 30% uplift in form.

WHO HAS CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY?

The numbers show that Villa, Bournemouth, Fulham and perhaps Brighton have a tough job on their hands to reach 5th place based on the form required. However maybe you are worried they have a really easy set of games. Well not really. We know there are no easy games, and the reality is over 9 games you will face a similar mix of sides.

However what is different is that some of the teams have their fate in their own hands, and to some extent the fate of the whole race. The chart below shows what percentage of each teams remaining fixtures are against other teams in the chase for a Champions League spot.

Aston Villa will have the biggest say in their own destiny and that of everyone else as two thirds of their games are against rivals for a European place. If we are rooting for any other team in the final part of the season it will be Villa in most games except our trip to their place. More than half of Fulham's games are against sides battling for Europe and they have had a decent record against the top-half teams in the league this season and so might be able to hold back a few of their rivals.

Forest & Brighton are the teams doing most of their business elsewhere and only have two 6-pointer games to worry about. Although maybe Palace should be in this conversation for Forest given their form and possible late charge for a European spot?

WHO HAS THE MOST DIFFICULT OPPONENTS?

The charts below show the average league position of each teams remaining opponents. A higher number means a lower league position which should mean an 'easier' game.

Man City have the best set of fixtures on average, followed by Forest, then Brighton. Fulham & Villa have the most difficult fixtures, given as mentioned above they play many of the other sides in the top half.

The chart on the right is based not on team form over the whole seaon, but on recent form. It therefore accounts for the likes of Everton being on the up.

Based on the six game form table it's actually Bournemouth with the best run-in, followed by Man City, Newcastle & then Forest. Chelsea face the toughest set of games based on recent form, followed by Brighton & Arsenal.

On either chart Forest have a good set of fixtures.

WHICH OTHERS CAN RUIN THE PARTY?

Everton, Brentford & Man Utd are the teams that can change the points totals the most, as they each have 6 games against the nine teams in the race. Leicester & Palace have five games. Liverpool have four games which is good news for Forest as you'd expect them to take a good points haul off the other sides. This is the order in which we will need to be cheering on these teams when they aren't playing us:

• Brentford - 6 games / 5 v others

• Man Utd - 6 games / 5 v others

• Everton - 6 games / 5 v others

• Leicester - 5 games / 4 v others

• Palace - 5 games / 4 v others

• Liverpool - 4 games / all v others

• Ipswich - 4 games / all v others

• Southampton - 4 games / all v others

• Tottenham - 4 games / 3 v others

• West Ham - 3 games / 2 v others

• Wolves - 2 games / all v others

EVEN I'M CONFIDENT ABOUT IT

As things stand it's hard to see a way for Forest's outlook to be anything other than positive. Our form is good, our fixtures are good the history is good. Forest finish strongly and even if we don't, then a slight dip in form isn't a problem. It's still a marathon not a sprint, all the hard work up to now matters as much as these final few games. Enjoy it!

Any statistical data is from FBRef.com

@danscapephoto