There are a lot of similarities between Nuno and Moyes as managers in the Premier League, at least in my eyes.

Similar pragmatic styles, over-achieving with smaller clubs, not enjoying a good time at a big club. I like to imagine they get on well. We know Nuno learned some of his football knowledge in Scotland from a recent John Percy article. He's a secret Spanish Scot at heart.

Is there a Moyes revolution at Everton?

Everton did have a new manager bounce with Moyes' arrival, but I would argue it has faded quickly and can be explained to some degree by their fixtures when he came in.

Everton's current form has dropped back to where they were under Sean Dyche, good at picking up single points, not so good at picking up wins. Dyche left half a team, a team that was elite at defending, but terrible at creating and taking their chances. The main change since Moyes came in is that Everton have been very clinical, and are creating slightly better chances. I think Moyes knew when he came in, he didn't have to start from scratch with a struggling team, he just needed to add goals. Much easier to deal with mid-season.

Where I think the numbers undermine the idea of a Moyes revolution is when you look at the run of games he had when he first came in. Dyche was sacked during Everton's toughest run of form, but Dyche had failed to take advantage of the games before that where Everton had a very winnable set of fixtures. Moyes first few games weren't easy per say, but they were average at least, possible slightly easier than average. He came in after the worst of it was done, had a good bounce, but is now faced with a challenge to get Everton scoring more goals again. Many will point to the return of McNeil & Ndiaye. On a side note, I think Dwight McNeil is an under-rated player, I don't watch him week in / week out but would be interested in him for a good price if Everton needed to boost their PSR numbers.

Don't lose sleep about Everton suddenly being a top half side. They are still a side that is best suited to draws, and their goal scoring form has dipped back to normal. Full strength Forest can keep they quiet and find a couple of good chances to win it. Half strength Forest might have to settle for a draw.

Here's a bunch of charts to illustrate the above............

• Form Comparison shows the new manager bounce has dropped back and into the red zone below 1 point per game.

• Opp Rank Comparison shows Moyes came in after Everton's toughest run of games.

• Goals Comparison shows the little goal scoring burst is over for Everton. They are back to averaging 1 goal per game.

• Goals Against Comparison shows they have been consistently good defensively this season, no wild swings in the way Forest have had.

• Goal Difference - Expected Goal Difference - shows they are back to under-performing their expected goal difference at the moment.

• Chance Quality Comparison - Shows Everton continue to create better chances for themselves under Moyes, but......

• Shot Conversion Comparison - shows a big drop from Moyes early games where Everton (Beto) were incredibly clinical.

Here's an interesting thing - Jordan Pickford's form under Moyes has dropped quite a bit on the stats.

• The Save% Comparison shows a constant decline since Moyes was appointed, from very good form at the end of the Dyche reign.

• The Post-Shot xG +/- reinforces the above with Pickford's form in constant decline.

Head To Head Comparison of Results

Home & Away Form Table

Everton have been better away from home than at home lately and are in better form away from home than Forest. However, Forest's recent home form is the 3rd best in the league behind only Liverpool & Chelsea.