The Sunny Scene Is Set For Set-Pieces

A couple of evenly matched teams based on their recent form, except in one particular regard. The dreaded set-pieces!

Forest's record has been very good this season in terms of the goals we have conceded from indirect set-pieces (corners, indirect free-kicks). We have scored 9 and conceded 5 based on the number's available to me for our league games. However the allmighty underlying numbers are painting a worrying picture which suggests we have been getting away with some near misses lately in the league, and didn't get away with them against City at Wembley.

Set Piece Vulnerability

To establish a teams set-piece vulnerability I've taken the number of free kicks and corners that each team faces in each game, and divided that by how many shot or goal creating actions are registerd as being from dead balls. So what % of the set pieces faced turn into shots or goals against as opposed to being cleared away from danger. This gives a nice % as to how vulnerable the team is.

You can see from the chart below that Forest started this season averaging around a 10% vulnerability to set-pieces. This was a steady improvement on last season where the average was only around 12-13%. In the second half of this season, when we faced teams in reverse fixtures starting with Wolves, Liverpool & Southampton we have looked much more vulnerable. You can see from that point onwards the vulnerability line shoots up and has been averaging around 20%. This means we have become twice as vulnerably from set-pieces in the second half of the season. It also means we are more vulnerable now than we were even last season in terms of how often set-pieces are converted into shots on out goal. The red drop lines show the gap from this time last season to now.

By comparison you can see in the Brenford chart they have stayed much more consistenly around the 10% vulnerability line, even dropping down to an excellent 5% vulnerability for a period.

So what has changed? If I had to guess I'd say it's no coincidence the change has come as we face each team for a second time. We have retained the same defensive setup throughout the season and teams know what to expect and therefore how to find weaknesses.

Less Yates

My other theory is that our set piece vulnerability has increased as the team selections have been more varied. Particularly in the decline of minutes for Ryan Yates! I'm not suggesting he's the god of set-piece defending, but he is usually pretty smart, switched on and the team captain that can organise others. Dominguez isn't someone you'd say has the same qualities, neither has Danilo when it comes to battling in the air. I therefore do wonder if we've sacrificed a bit of set-piece nouse for other aspects of our game.

xG From Set Pieces

Going beyond just the number of shots & goals from set-pieces we can also look at the xG registered for chances that involved an indirect dead ball. This is limited to the two actions before the shot, so corner, flick on shot, or shot corner, cross, shot. If it's a complex set-piece with multiple touches before a cross of shot is made the data available to me doesn't capture it.

Even so you can see that we are facing a much higher xG against from set-pieces in this second half of the season. We've gone from around 0.10 xG in games to now above 0.30 xG. The quality of chances teams are getting from set pieces has tripled at times with a rolling 6-game average. Thinks have improved a bit of late but we still aren't down near our performance at the start of the season.

The Brentford Problem

The big problem is, Brentford are the league's in form set-piece specialists. They currently top the form chart for their Set-Piece Impact, i.e how often they convert set-pieces into shots. So we are at our low in defending set-pieces and they are on a high in creating chances from set-pieces. Our own threat from set pieces has also declined in the second half of the season as well. Again you'd think it's being a bit too predictable maybe in our attacking plays. Either way going into a game against the in-form set-piece specialists while being very vulnerable ourselves has to be an area of concern.

The Chris Gill Podcast / Episode 70 0 Yannick Euvard (link below)

On the topic of Set-Pieces I found this podcast really informative about what goes into the role of a set-piece coach / analyst. I recommend giving it a listen, some very interesting take-aways. Like a lot of things there's more to it than just deciding if you go man marking or zonal. A couple of key takeaways for me were:

• Not all players that are good in the air are good at winning aerials duels. There are different skills needed around body position, tracking the player etc, not just jumping as high as possible.

• Practicing set-pieces in training is a high injury risk area. Potential for head injuries, lots of jumping and landing risk of injuries which means often as the season goes on set pieces are less and less part of the training schedule. It becomes more of a tactical prep withouth being able to practice them a lot on the field at full intensity.

• Teams usually have a Set-Piece Captain different from the team captain, who's role if to try and adapt and organise on the field because the situations are never quite the same as you practice them.

• There is a lot of detail involved and the substitutions during games can have a big impact on set-piece organisation. Having a consistent team selection helps a lot in that respect.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-chris-gill-podcast/id1741211843?i=1000698558687

A Long Ball Battle

Forest & Brentford are teams that make some of the most long ball passess in the league. In fact they both choose to go for long balls about 18-19% of the time for their passes. The chart shows this as you go from left to right with Everton making the highest % of long passess from all their passing.

If you track from bottom to top of the chart though you can see Brentford are much more accurate with their long balls than Forest. Brentford complete 55% of their long passes and Forest only 39-40% of the time based on recent form. Might they lay claim to being long ball specialists?

Box Penetration

Brentford are the leagues best box penetrators at the moment. That is how often they turn touches in the final third into touches in the opposition penalty area. You know rather than dillly dallying around being able to find passess or carry the ball into the most dangerous areas in the box.

You can see from the second chart which is a timeline over the season, it's an area of the game they have been improving as the season has gone on, whereas Forest are getting less efficient.

Form Charts

Here is a bit of a dump of other form charts for your perusal. You can see Forest & Brentford are both in good form at the moment for most metrics and similarly matched. Apart from the Set-Pieces and the fact that Brentford currently have much better away form than home form.

Thanks for reading. You can hear a bit more on the above in the Brentford Preview on the Talkign Reds Podcast - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJDQmVyIwJY